Module 4 Assignment

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 Daniel Tafmizi

Lis 4273

Dr. Ajani 

February 4, 2024

Module 4 Assignment

Question A) A1: 33% A2: 33% A3: 66% A4: 55%

Question B) 

Trick question, Jane is getting married not Marie and wow is my brain hurting. Jokes aside, I believe this answer is True. We are looking to see if it will rain based on the weatherman's report. We need to get the value of the weatherman's conditional probability, which is seen in (0.014)(0.9). Then we need to see how his predictions play out in the real world through prior probability, which is seen in [ (0.014)(0.9) + (0.986)(0.1) ]. Dividing these gives us our probability that the weatherman is right .1 out of .986 is much greater than .9 of .014. Thus it stands to reason that the probability would be low. Bayes' theory is cool and I would like to spend more time with it.

Question C)

> dbinom(x=10, size=10, prob=.2)
[1] 1.024e-07

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